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The first day of IPAA’s Annual Meeting in San Antonio focused on the challenges that the upstream industry faces in the U.S. and how it can pursue successful strategies amid a confusing energy landscape. With that in mind, keynote speaker Ken Hersh did a good job of pointing out some obvious things about the situation in the U.S. from the perspective of someone who was not originally affiliated with the oil and gas industry. Hersh sat down with IPAA Chairman Steven Pruett for an informal conversation on a wide variety of topics.

Hersh started out in the private investment portion of the country’s financial sector, but he soon found himself venturing into energy deals with no specific training. He eventually co-founded NGP Energy Capital Management and ultimately served as the firm’s CEO. At NGP, he helped pioneer an investment methodology that enabled NGP to become one of the nation’s largest and most successful private investment firms in the natural resources sector. Later, in 2016, Hersh became President and CEO of the George W. Bush Presidential Center on the Southern Methodist University campus in Dallas, Texas, a post he still holds today.

Operating philosophy. Talking about the investment and career strategies of oil and gas professionals, Hersh that “people who plan out their trajectory too much might close off some of their options.” He also opined that “a lot of people are too risk-averse. What’s the worst thing that can happen?” That being said, Hersh did say that the problems facing the industry cannot be solved by any one company. Rather, they require a broad coalition of industry companies working together. “I cannot fix problems in the oil and gas industry at the company level,” he declared. “The key is to align yourself with good people. I always wanted to back those people, who, rather than call me in the middle of the night to describe a problem that needs fixing, would stay up all night and then call me at 9:00 am to tell me how he/she fixed it.”

Global factors at work. Asked whether investing in the oil and gas industry is still “prudent,” Hersh said, “I get asked this question a lot. And the answer is yes.” Pruett then steered the conversation to the threat posed to the industry by eager environmentalists, clean energy advocates and the Biden administration’s policies. But Hersh was up for the challenge. “I have this to say to the clear energy crowd: Yes, the planet is changing. But you have to remember that the world’s population has gone from 6 billion to 8 billion, just since 2000. We’ve done a lot to lower our emissions in the U.S., more than anybody else. And don’t forget, at least one-third of all emissions are agricultural.”

Recognizing that upstream operators face a number of issues, Hersh said he thought the companies have a good track record. “Business is hard; there are always challenges,” he noted. “But we’re (the industry) doing a pretty good job of meeting them.”

Taxation. Hersh expressed a good deal of irritation with those officials in government, who think the answer to climate problems is to tax oil and gas producers. “Taxing oil and gas producers (punitively) for the climate is like taxing sugar cane producers for causing diabetes.”

EVs and electrification. Then there is the subject of electric vehicles (EVs). Hersh said they have their place in the overall energy picture, but they are not the end-all, either. “There has been no real decrease in the number of internal combustion-powered cars and trucks operating in the world,” he noted. “Today, there are 1.1 billion cars and trucks powered by hydrocarbons operating on the road worldwide, but only 20 million EVs on the road. It (the EV percentage of total vehicles) rounds to zero!” (Editor’s note: Actually, it rounds to 1.8%) “In another decade, there will be 1.3 billion internal combustion vehicles and maybe 200 million EVs. So, as Hersh explained, even if the number of EVs increases, the number of internal combustion vehicles will continue to rise, too.

The Bush Presidential Center head also noted that electrification of vehicles and other functions in the U.S. cannot succeed properly without additional, substantial investment in infrastructure. “Electrification is a fool’s errand,” if the U.S. doesn’t fix its electrical grids,” he explained.

Summing it up. So, going back to the overall topic of what the industry should do to address challenges, Hersh said, “We (the industry) need to keep doing what we’re doing. At the end of the day, you’ve got to know the numbers. I’ve seen a report, where it’s estimated that the Net Zero effort will eventually cost us $6 trillion annually. People aren’t going to tolerate this, and they eventually will punish the politicians. We’re in a moment of time, where we all need to think about the big picture. We need to help our institutions to self-correct.”

Ahead of his conversation with Hersh, Pruett and IPAA President and CEO Jeff Eshelman provided an update on the state of affairs for independent producers in the U.S. Acknowledging some of the same issues that Hersh discussed, Pruett and Eshelman told attendees that it’s going to be a challenging year in 2024 for independents.

We, at World Oil, agree with that summation. Just consider that availability of financing for drilling and other upstream projects remains difficult, particularly for the smallest operators. In addition, there is the problem of the Bureau of Land Management trying to seal off potential exploration and development sites, in an effort to restrict growth of oil and gas production. There also is the problem of inflated costs for oilfield equipment, goods and services, which have not come down in price sufficiently to encourage some operators to come off the sidelines. Still, the industry has managed to squeeze out some improvement via efficiency gains.